Typhoon “Ofel” further weakens over mainland Cagayan

Typhoon Ofel further weakens over mainland Cagayan but continues to threaten Babuyan Islands. Residents in Northern Luzon, particularly those in areas under higher wind signals, are advised to prepare for potential impacts on life and property. Coastal areas face significant risks of storm surges, and mariners should avoid sea travel due to dangerous conditions.

Location and Intensity

• Center Position: In the vicinity of Gonzaga, Cagayan (18.2°N, 122.0°E)
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 165 km/h near the center
• Gustiness: Up to 275 km/h
• Central Pressure: 950 hPa
• Present Movement: West northwestward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Winds: Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 360 km from the center

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) in Effect

TCWS No. 4

• Wind Threat: Typhoon-force winds
• Warning Lead Time: 12 hours
• Wind Speed Range: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
• Potential Impacts: Significant to severe threat to life and property
• Areas Affected in Luzon:
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira)

TCWS No. 3

• Wind Threat: Storm-force winds
• Warning Lead Time: 18 hours
• Wind Speed Range: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
• Potential Impacts: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
• Areas Affected in Luzon:
  • Batanes
  • Rest of Cagayan
  • Northern portion of Isabela (San Pablo, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Maconacon, Delfin Albano)
  • Northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao)
  • Northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg)

TCWS No. 2

• Wind Threat: Gale-force winds
• Warning Lead Time: 24 hours
• Wind Speed Range: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
• Potential Impacts: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
• Areas Affected in Luzon:
  • Western and eastern portions of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, San Mariano, Palanan, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Dinapigue)
  • Rest of Apayao
  • Kalinga
  • Northeastern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman)
  • Eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis)
  • Rest of Ilocos Norte

TCWS No. 1

• Wind Threat: Strong winds
• Warning Lead Time: 36 hours
• Wind Speed Range: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
• Potential Impacts: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
• Areas Affected in Luzon:
  • Rest of Isabela
  • Quirino
  • Northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Ambaguio, Solano, Bayombong, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Villaverde, Dupax del Norte, Bambang)
  • Rest of Mountain Province
  • Rest of Ifugao
  • Rest of Abra
  • Northern portion of Benguet (Mankayan, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias)
  • Ilocos Sur
  • Northern portion of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, Balaoan)
  • Northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Dipaculao)

Other Hazards Affecting Land Areas

Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 32 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “Ofel.”

Severe Winds

• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

Coastal Inundation
A high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m is expected in the next 48 hours in low-lying or exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), Isabela, and northern Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 9 issued at 2:00 PM today for further details.

Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 PM today for additional information.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

• Very Rough to High Seas
  • Up to 12.0 m: Seaboard of Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands)
  • Up to 8.0 m: Seaboards of Isabela and Batanes
  • Up to 6.0 m: Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
    Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels.
• Rough Seas
  • Up to 4.0 m: Seaboard of northern Aurora
  • Up to 3.0 m: Remaining seaboard of Aurora and Ilocos Norte, northern mainland Quezon, northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands
    Mariners of small seacrafts should avoid sea travel.
• Moderate Seas
  • Up to 2.5 m: Seaboard of Camarines Norte and Ilocos Sur, northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboard of Catanduanes
  • Up to 2.0 m: Eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar
    Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels should take precautions.

Track and Intensity Outlook

• Path and Movement
  Typhoon Ofel will continue to cross northeastern mainland Luzon this evening, moving northwestward and potentially passing close to or making landfall near Babuyan Islands tonight. Ofel is expected to turn northward by tomorrow (15 November) over the sea west of Batanes and then northeastward over the sea east of Taiwan over the weekend.
• Forecast Changes
  Ofel is expected to continue weakening due to its interaction with Luzon’s landmass and an increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan. A slight shift in the track within the forecast confidence cone is still possible.