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Super Typhoon “Mawar” has entered PAR; Renamed to ST #BettyPH

Super Typhoon Mawar, newly named Super Typhoon Betty, has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). As of 4:00 AM today, the center of the eye was estimated to be located approximately 1,320 kilometers east of Central Luzon (16.1°N, 134.5°E).

Betty is a powerful storm, boasting maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 240 km/h. The tropical cyclone’s central pressure is measured at 915 hPa. It is currently moving west-northwestward at a rate of 25 km/h, and its strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 570 km from the center.

Although no Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals are currently in effect, the imminent threat posed by Super Typhoon Betty could prompt the hoisting of wind signals in some areas of Northern Luzon as early as tonight or tomorrow morning.

Heavy Rainfall Forecast

Betty is predicted to bring significant rainfall to many parts of the country. From Monday early morning to Tuesday early morning, 50-100 mm of rain is anticipated in Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao.

By Tuesday early morning to Wednesday early morning, rainfall amounts in Batanes could exceed 200 mm, with 100-200 mm expected in Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union, and 50-100 mm in the Cordillera Administrative Region and the northern portion of mainland Cagayan. These levels could be higher in elevated or mountainous areas.

In regions not directly affected by the super typhoon, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may bring rain over the western sections of MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao. These conditions raise the possibility of flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in highly susceptible areas and those that have already experienced substantial rainfall recently.

Severe Winds and Coastal Hazards

Strong breeze to gale-force conditions caused by the approaching super typhoon are expected. The enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring strong breezes to near gale conditions with intermittent gusts over Visayas, the eastern portions of Central and Southern Luzon, and the northern and eastern portions of Mindanao starting late Sunday or early Monday.

Mariners are advised to exercise caution as moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) are expected along the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas within the next 24 hours, potentially escalating to very rough conditions (2.5 to 5.0 m) by this evening. The northern seaboard of Luzon may also face moderate to rough seas this morning through the afternoon, becoming rougher (2.5 to 4.0 m) beginning tonight.

Track and Intensity Outlook

Super Typhoon Betty is predicted to track west-northwestward over the weekend, turning northwestward and decelerating as it approaches Extreme Northern Luzon by Monday. Betty may become almost stationary between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, when it will be closest to Batanes (i.e., within 250-300 km).

While it is expected to maintain its super typhoon status over the weekend, short-term intensification is possible over the next 12 to 24 hours. However, potential unfavorable conditions, including the upwelling of cooler ocean water and dry air intrusion, may lead to considerable weakening by Monday or Tuesday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.


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