Typhoon “Egay” undergoes rapid intensification as it moves over PH Sea

The Philippines is closely monitoring the development of Typhoon Egay as it undergoes rapid intensification while traversing the Philippine Sea. The storm poses significant hazards to land areas, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal disturbances.

Various regions are expected to experience heavy rainfall due to Typhoon Egay. Today, Catanduanes, the northeastern portion of Camarines Sur, and the northern portion of Camarines Norte may receive 50-100 mm of accumulated rainfall. Tomorrow, the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is forecasted to have above 200 mm of rainfall, while the rest of Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, the western portion of Abra, and the northern portion of Apayao, may receive 100-200 mm of rainfall. Additionally, Batanes, the northern and eastern portions of Isabela, the rest of Apayao, the rest of Abra, Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, and the western portion of Pangasinan may receive 50-100 mm of rainfall.

On Wednesday, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte may receive above 200 mm of rainfall, while the northern portion of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, and Ilocos Sur may receive 100-200 mm of rainfall. The rest of mainland Cagayan, Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan may receive 50-100 mm of rainfall. Elevated or mountainous areas are expected to experience higher rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in areas highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.

Moreover, Typhoon Egay may enhance the Southwest Monsoon, leading to occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days.

Southwest Monsoon

Typhoon Egay, along with the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, may also bring gusty conditions in areas not under any Wind Signal, particularly in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. For today, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Visayas, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga may experience gusty conditions. Tomorrow, Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and the northern portion of Northern Mindanao and Dinagat Islands are expected to be affected. On Wednesday, Luzon and Visayas may experience gusty conditions.

Track and Intensity Outlook

Typhoon Egay is currently moving westward at 15 km/h and is forecasted to turn northwestward, heading closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait. The track forecast indicates that the typhoon may cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday afternoon. It is then expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday, moving over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, Egay will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China, on late Thursday or early Friday.

It should be noted that further shifts in the track forecast closer to Luzon are possible due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon, as represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.

Egay is forecasted to continue intensifying and may reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or early Wednesday. However, if the track forecast shifts closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below the Super Typhoon threshold. Nevertheless, Egay is expected to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.