Typhoon Carina Intensifies as it Moves Northwestward Over the Philippine Sea

PAGASA has reported that Typhoon Carina (GAEMI) has slightly intensified as it moves northwestward over the Philippine Sea. The typhoon, now packing maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h and gustiness up to 160 km/h, poses significant threats to various parts of Luzon. With its current trajectory, Carina is expected to bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas, prompting residents in affected areas to take necessary precautions.

Current Status:

• Location (10:00 PM): The center of Typhoon Carina was estimated at 375 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan or 375 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.5°N, 125.2°E).
• Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa.
• Movement: Northwestward at 15 km/h.
• Extent of Winds: Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) in Effect:

• TCWS No. 1:
  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Ballesteros, Allacapan, Abulug, Pamplona, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Lasam, Alcala)
  • Eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon, Dinapigue, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria)
  • Northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Flora, Santa Marcela)
  • Northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Bangui, Adams, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar)
  • Northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
  • Polillo Islands
  • Calaguas Islands
  • Northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto, Caramoran)

Heavy Rainfall Outlook:

• Today to Tomorrow noon (23 July):
  • 100-200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands
  • 50-100 mm: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, eastern portion of Isabela
• Tomorrow noon (23 July) to Wednesday noon (24 July):
  • 100-200 mm: Batanes
  • 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands
• Wednesday noon (24 July) to Thursday noon (25 July):
  • 50-100 mm: Batanes

Flooding and landslides are possible, especially in highly susceptible areas identified in official hazard maps and localities that experienced significant rainfall in recent days.

Severe Winds: Minimal to minor impacts due to strong winds may be experienced within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 1 is hoisted. The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Carina will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas:

• Tonight to Tomorrow: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Davao Region.
• Wednesday: Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao.
• Thursday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar.

Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters: In the next 24 hours, Carina and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 4.0 m) over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon, and western seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Western Visayas (1.5 to 3.0 m). Mariners of small seacrafts are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions.

Moderate seas are expected over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao (1.5 to 2.0 m). Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels should take precautionary measures and avoid navigating under these conditions if possible.

Track and Intensity Outlook:

• Carina is forecast to move north northwestward or northward tonight until tomorrow (23 July) while gradually accelerating before turning northwestward. It is expected to remain far from the Philippine landmass and make landfall over northern Taiwan between Wednesday evening (24 July) or Thursday morning (25 July), then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) hours later. Carina will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over southeastern China on Thursday afternoon or evening.
• Carina is forecast to steadily intensify and may reach its peak intensity within the next two days. Rapid intensification within the forecast period remains likely. Its landfall over northern Taiwan and subsequently over southeastern China will trigger a weakening trend.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to take necessary measures to protect life and property. Follow local officials’ evacuation instructions and monitor PAGASA updates for the latest severe weather information.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.