Tropical Storm Ofel Intensifies as It Moves Closer to the Philippines

Severe Tropical Storm Ofel has slightly intensified as it tracks northwestward over the Philippine Sea. Although it currently poses no direct threat to any part of the country, preparations should be made in anticipation of potential impacts. Communities in Northern and Central Luzon should closely monitor Ofel’s progress as it approaches, bringing risks of heavy rainfall, severe winds, and rough seas.

Location and Intensity

• Location: 950 km East of Southeastern Luzon (13.8°N, 133.0°E)
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 105 km/h
• Movement: Northwestward at 35 km/h

Forecast Track and Intensity

According to PAGASA, Ofel is expected to maintain its current track, moving west northwestward until Thursday evening before shifting northwestward. Forecasts indicate that it may reach typhoon strength by tomorrow evening or early Thursday morning before potential landfall over Northern or Central Luzon on Thursday afternoon or evening. The exact landfall location remains uncertain, but hazards may extend beyond the forecasted path.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals

No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals have been raised yet. However, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over portions of Cagayan Valley late tonight or early tomorrow. The highest signal that may be raised during Ofel’s duration is Signal No. 4.

Other Hazards Affecting Land Areas

Heavy Rainfall Outlook While Ofel is currently not directly impacting any region, Weather Advisory No. 19 has been issued in anticipation of rainfall associated with its approach.

Severe Winds Areas may experience strong to gale-force gusts due to the wind flow circulating around Ofel. Specific gusty conditions are anticipated in:

• Tomorrow (13 November): Catanduanes
• Thursday (14 November): Batanes, Quezon (including Polillo Islands), Camarines Norte, and northern portions of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes
• Friday (15 November): Isabela and the northern portion of Aurora

Coastal Hazards

Sea Conditions Sea conditions are expected to worsen in various areas:

• Very rough to high seas (up to 4.0 m): Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and northern Ilocos Sur
• Rough seas (up to 3.5 m): Seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan, and Babuyan Islands
• Moderate seas: Other coastal regions in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao

Mariners are advised to avoid sea travel in affected waters due to the heightened risks, and smaller vessels should take caution in moderate sea areas.

Forecast Positions

• Nov 12, 8:00 PM: 735 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
• Nov 13, 8:00 AM: 590 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte
• Nov 13, 8:00 PM: 395 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
• Nov 14, 8:00 AM: 205 km East of Echague, Isabela
• Nov 14, 8:00 PM: Over the coastal waters of Aparri, Cagayan
• Nov 15, 8:00 AM: 100 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan
• Nov 16, 8:00 AM: 140 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Nov 17, 8:00 AM: 225 km North of Itbayat, Batanes

Communities in Northern and Central Luzon are advised to stay alert for updates and heed any advisories from local authorities, especially if there is a shift in the storm’s path.