TD Butchoy Exits PAR; Carina Maintains Strength in Philippine Sea

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued updates on Tropical Depressions Butchoy and Carina. Butchoy has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while Carina continues to maintain its strength as it moves west northwestward over the Philippine Sea. Both weather systems are expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing moderate to heavy rains and gusty conditions over parts of Luzon and Visayas. Coastal areas and small vessels are advised to take precautionary measures.

Tropical Depression Butchoy:

• Status: Butchoy has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
• Location (10:00 AM): Centered at 565 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.1°N, 114.7°E).
• Intensity: Maximum sustained winds at 55 km/h, gustiness up to 70 km/h, central pressure at 1002 hPa.
• Movement: West Northwestward at 10 km/h.
• Winds: Strong winds extend up to 150 km from the center.
• Wind Signals: No Wind Signal is in effect.

Tropical Depression Carina:

• Status: Carina maintains its strength while moving west northwestward over the Philippine Sea.
• Location (10:00 AM): Centered at 510 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (15.3°N, 128.6°E).
• Intensity: Maximum sustained winds at 55 km/h, gustiness up to 70 km/h, central pressure at 1004 hPa.
• Movement: West northwestward at 30 km/h.
• Winds: Strong winds extend up to 200 km from the center.
• Wind Signals: No Wind Signal is in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land Areas:

Heavy Rainfall Outlook:

• Butchoy: Unlikely to directly affect the country in the next three days. However, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Butchoy and Carina will bring moderate to heavy rains over the western portion of Luzon.
• Carina: Heavy rainfall directly caused by Carina remains unlikely over the next three days, but forecast changes may alter this outlook.

Severe Winds:

• Butchoy and Carina: The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by these tropical depressions will bring gusty conditions over the following areas:
  • Today and Tomorrow (21 July): Kalayaan Islands.
  • Monday (22 July): CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Zambales, Bataan, and Metro Manila.

Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters:

• Butchoy: Slight to moderate seas (0.5-2.0 m) over the coastal waters of Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands.
• Carina: Moderate seas (1.0-2.0 m) over the coastal waters along the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small vessels are advised to take precautionary measures.

Track and Intensity Outlook:

• Butchoy: Expected to move west northwestward today until tomorrow, then turning north northwestward on Monday (22 July). Limited intensification is expected within the next two days, possibly reaching tropical storm status by tomorrow, with rapid weakening after landfall over Hainan, China on Monday evening.
• Carina: Forecast to move northwestward until tomorrow, then turn northward on Monday, accelerating towards the Ryukyu archipelago from Tuesday (23 July) onwards. Carina will likely intensify to a tropical storm within 12 to 24 hours and possibly reach typhoon status by Tuesday.

Note: This is the final bulletin for Tropical Depression Butchoy unless it re-enters the PAR. The next bulletin for Tropical Depression Carina will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

SOURCE: PAGASA