EGAY Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm Moving Westward

The Severe Tropical Storm EGAY has intensified, now bearing maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, with gustiness reaching up to 115 km/h. Positioned 610 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte, EGAY is moving westward at 15 km/h.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Today, Catanduanes is projected to receive accumulated rainfall between 50-100 mm. Forecasted rainfall intensifies tomorrow, affecting a broader area:

• 100-200 mm: Catanduanes
• 50-100 mm: Cagayan, eastern Isabela, Polilio Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Albay

By Tuesday, heavy rainfall predictions are:

• 200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northeastern Cagayan, and northern Ilocos Norte
• 100-200 mm: Apayao, Abra, rest of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and the rest of Cagayan
• 50-100 mm: Pangasinan, Isabela, and the remaining parts of the Cordillera Administrative Region

Mountainous regions could witness higher rainfall accumulations, leading to potential flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in susceptible areas and localities with substantial previous rainfall.

Additionally, EGAY’s influence may enhance the Southwest Monsoon, potentially resulting in intermittent rain across parts of the country over the next three days.

Severe Winds

The Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas are on alert for potential wind signals. Forecasts suggest a maximum of Wind Signal No. 3 or 4, particularly in Extreme Northern Luzon. Notably, if EGAY shifts southward, even higher wind signals might be necessary. EGAY and the Southwest Monsoon are also expected to induce gusty conditions in select regions, including MIMAROPA and Visayas.

Track and Intensity Outlook

EGAY’s current trajectory sees it moving slowly in the next 12 hours, then accelerating west-northwestward or westward till tomorrow morning. Subsequently, a general northwestward turn is anticipated. The latest projections show EGAY primarily offshore, but a close approach or even landfall near Extreme Northern Luzon hasn’t been ruled out. EGAY’s closest approach to Extreme Northern Luzon is expected on Wednesday, before potentially making landfall on Taiwan’s east coast on Thursday morning.

EGAY’s intensity may further escalate to a typhoon within 24 hours and could reach super typhoon status by Tuesday. Rapid intensification is probable in the next 72 hours, with a weakening trend likely starting Wednesday. The mountainous terrain of Taiwan is expected to lead to further weakening, continuing until EGAY makes another landfall on mainland China.

The next weather advisory by PAGASA will be issued at 5:00 PM today.