Tropical Depression Paolo Forms East of Southern Luzon

UPDATE May 13, 2026 11:16 AM:

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The low pressure area east of Southern Luzon has developed into Tropical DepressionPaolo. The system is currently moving westward over the Philippine Sea and may bring rains and winds to parts of Northern and Central Luzon in the coming days.

Track and Intensity Outlook

• Location of Center (7:00 AM): 760 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (14.1°N, 131.2°E)
• Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
• Present Movement: Westward at 25 km/h
• Extent of Winds: Strong winds extend outwards up to 360 km from the center
• Paolo is forecast to move generally west northwestward and may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora by Friday, 03 October. It may intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm before landfall and could reach Typhoon category.

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Hazards Affecting Land Areas

• Heavy Rainfall Outlook:Paolo is less likely to directly affect the weather condition of the country in the next 24 hours. Heavy rains may begin affecting Northern and Central Luzon starting Friday. Flooding and landslides are possible in low-lying and mountainous areas.
• Severe Winds: Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon as early as this afternoon or evening. The highest signal that may be raised during its passage is Signal No. 3, though a stronger scenario of Signal No. 4 cannot be ruled out if it reaches Typhoon category.
• Coastal Inundation: There is potential risk of coastal flooding due to storm surge in low-lying coastal areas of Northern and Central Luzon. Storm surge warnings may be issued later today or tomorrow.

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Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters

• 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook:Paolo may bring moderate to rough seas over the coastal waters of Northern and Central Luzon starting early morning Friday. Gale Warnings may be raised by tomorrow afternoon in anticipation of rough to very rough sea conditions.

Advisory

Residents, particularly in Northern and Central Luzon, are advised to closely monitor official updates, prepare for possible heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding, and follow the guidance of local authorities.

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