A Warmer Amihan? What Baguio Can Expect

Excerpt: PAGASA’s outlook points to warmer conditions across much of the Philippines during the coming Amihan season. For Baguio, the monthly maps suggest a warmer end to 2026, followed by near-average temperatures early in 2027. Benguet’s rainfall outlook deserves attention throughout the period.

Based on PAGASA forecasts issued September 23, 2026; reviewed September 30, 2026.

Baguio’s familiar year-end chill may arrive against a warmer national climate outlook, but the forecast does not suggest the city will be unusually warm throughout the entire Amihan season.

PAGASA’s October 2026 to March 2027 outlook anticipates temperatures above the usual averages across much of the Philippines. At Baguio’s location on its monthly maps, the pattern is more varied: warmer conditions toward the end of 2026, particularly in December, and near-average temperatures from January through March 2027.

For residents, there is another concern alongside temperature. Benguet is forecast to have more dry days than usual, with the province’s potential rainfall-deficit classification progressing to drought by February.

El Niño and Amihan can occur together

The report identifies an ongoing strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA expects it to strengthen further before the end of 2026 and continue into the first half of 2027.

El Niño influences the broader climate outlook, increasing the likelihood of warmer conditions and reduced rainfall in much of the country. Amihan, meanwhile, is the northeast monsoon associated with the Philippines’ cooler months. A strengthening El Niño does not mean the seasonal monsoon disappears.

The September outlook anticipates Amihan’s onset in late October or November, following the expected end of Habagat in October. This is a forecast window, rather than an announcement that Amihan has already begun.

What the temperature maps suggest for Baguio

PAGASA compares its monthly temperature forecasts with the 1991–2020 average. “Warmer than usual” therefore means warmer than the historical average for that particular place and month, rather than necessarily warmer than last year.

Reading the plotted point at Baguio’s location against the maps’ legends gives this pattern:

These categories are interpreted from PAGASA’s plotted location and map legend. They are not a separately published numerical forecast for Baguio. The ranges describe monthly mean temperature differences, rather than daily highs or lows.

The December signal suggests a potentially warmer Christmas period by Baguio’s historical standards. The early 2027 maps, however, give less support to describing the whole season as unusually warm in the city.

Monthly averages also leave room for variation. A warmer month can include cold mornings, while a near-average month can have both warmer and cooler days.

Will Baguio still have cold mornings?

Cold mornings remain possible. PAGASA’s historical records show that Baguio’s average daily minimum temperature is 14.1°C in December, 13.0°C in January and 13.4°C in February, using the 1991–2020 reference period.

Those figures describe past averages, not the temperatures forecast for this coming season. They help explain why even a warmer-than-average December can still feel cool, especially early in the morning.

The outlook’s regional extreme-temperature table gives a January minimum-temperature range of 8.4°C to 11.4°C for mountainous Luzon. This leaves room for a pronounced chill in the highlands, but it does not guarantee that Baguio itself will reach 8.4°C.

Likewise, forecast highs in the upper 30s for some lowland areas should not be applied to Baguio. Regional temperature extremes, city temperatures and heat index readings describe different things.

More dry days forecast for Benguet

The report’s dry-day forecast adds a clearer picture of the expected rainfall pattern around Baguio.

PAGASA defines a dry day as one with less than 1 millimeter of rainfall. It does not necessarily mean a completely rainless day or a guarantee of sunshine. These are provincial estimates, rather than an exact calendar of dry days for Baguio.

The rainfall-deficit outlook also identifies Benguet as potentially experiencing a dry condition by the end of November, a dry spell by December and January, and drought by February and March.

These classifications concern accumulated rainfall shortages. The red shading on the supplied drought maps indicates drought potential, rather than high temperatures.

Baguio is not separately listed in the provincial drought tables. The outlook therefore supports concern about rainfall shortages in the surrounding province, without establishing a city-specific drought declaration or predicting household water interruptions.

For residents and nearby farming communities, the distinction matters: cooler weather early in 2027 would not, by itself, resolve a shortage of rain. Conserving water and following local supply advisories remain sensible as the season develops.

A drier season can still bring rain and storms

The same report forecasts three to five tropical cyclones developing within or entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility between October 2026 and March 2027. That number does not mean three to five landfalls, or three to five storms affecting Baguio.

PAGASA also lists weather systems such as shear lines, frontal systems and localized thunderstorms among those that may influence the country during the forecast period. An overall tendency toward less rain does not remove the possibility of episodes of heavy rainfall.

For planning daily activities or a trip to Baguio, residents and visitors should check short-range weather forecasts alongside later climate updates. The seasonal outlook describes likely conditions over several months; it cannot specify the weather on a particular Christmas gathering, travel day or January morning.

How residents can prepare for a stronger El Niño

With PAGASA expecting El Niño to become very strong and persist into the first half of 2027, households can begin preparing through small, practical steps.

• Reduce water waste now. Check faucets, toilet tanks and exposed pipes for leaks. Turn off the tap while brushing your teeth, wash full laundry loads when possible, and use a bucket instead of a continuously running hose for cleaning. These habits can help stretch the household supply as rainfall decreases.
• Prepare a small, safe water reserve. Where space and budget allow, keep enough water for at least three days of essential household needs. Store drinking water in clean, food-grade containers with tight lids, label the storage date, and keep them away from sunlight and chemicals. Separate drinking water from water intended for cleaning or flushing.
• Plan for hotter days. Keep drinking water accessible, wear light, loose clothing, and schedule strenuous outdoor chores during cooler hours. Use curtains to shade rooms from direct sunlight and open windows when the air outside is cooler. Baguio’s cool mornings should not be the only guide when planning an afternoon outdoors.
• Check on family members who may need help. Children, older adults and people with chronic illnesses may need extra support during hot weather. Make sure they can reach drinking water and a cool place to rest. Never leave children or pets inside a parked vehicle. Confusion, collapse or loss of consciousness during heat exposure calls for immediate medical help.
• Follow local advisories as conditions change. Check PAGASA’s climate updates and daily forecasts, along with water-supply announcements from Baguio Water District or your provider and notices from the city and barangay. Discuss how your household would manage an announced supply interruption. Continue paying attention to rainfall and storm warnings even during a drier season.

Source footnotes

1. DOST-PAGASA, Climate Outlook for October 2026–March 2027, issued September 23, 2026. The attached report was reviewed in full. Relevant PDF pages: 6–8, El Niño outlook; 9, monsoon timing and weather systems; 20–21, dry-day definition and Benguet forecast; 25–29, provincial rainfall-deficit outlooks; 36, monthly temperature maps; 37, regional temperature extremes; and 38, tropical cyclone frequency. Page numbers refer to PDF pages, counting the cover as page 1.
2. DOST-PAGASA, Seasonal Forecast, temperature maps issued September 23, 2026, checked against the monthly maps in the attached outlook. The Baguio categories above are a geographical interpretation of the plotted point and legend, rather than a separate city forecast table.
3. DOST-PAGASA, Baguio City Climatological Normals, 1991–2020, historical average daily minimum temperatures for December, January and February.
4. DOST-PAGASA, Climate Advisory for “Very Strong” El Niño, September 23, 2026, for the broader Philippine temperature and rainfall outlook and conservation guidance.
5. World Health Organization, Heatwaves: How to stay cool, for household cooling, hydration, vulnerable groups and heat-related emergency guidance.
6. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, How to Create an Emergency Water Supply, June 27, 2025, for a three-day reserve and safe water-storage practices.