Tropical Depression Paolo Slightly Intensifies Over the Philippine Sea

UPDATE May 13, 2026 11:16 AM:

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Tropical Depression Paolo has slightly intensified while moving west northwestward over the Philippine Sea. It is forecast to continue gaining strength as it heads toward Northern and Central Luzon.
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Track and Intensity Outlook

• Location of Center (4:00 PM): 665 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5°N, 130.3°E)
• Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
• Present Movement: West northwestward at 25 km/h
• Extent of Winds: Strong winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the center
• Paolo is forecast to move generally west northwestward and may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora by Friday, 03 October. It may reach Severe Tropical Storm category by Friday and possibly intensify into a Typhoon before landfall. Re-intensification is also possible once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.

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Hazards Affecting Land Areas

• Heavy Rainfall Outlook: Heavy rains may begin affecting Northern and Central Luzon starting Friday, 03 October. Flooding and landslides are possible in low-lying and mountainous areas.
• Severe Winds: Signal No. 1 is currently raised over the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga). Minimal to minor impacts are expected in these areas. The highest Wind Signal that may be hoisted during its passage is Signal No. 3, but Signal No. 4 cannot be ruled out if it reaches Typhoon strength.
• Coastal Inundation: Moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m within 48 hours over the coastal localities of Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora.

Hazards Affecting Coastal Waters

• 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook: Gale Warnings may be raised over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon as early as tomorrow, 02 October, due to rough to very rough sea conditions caused by Paolo.

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Advisory

Residents in Northern and Central Luzon are advised to closely monitor updates, prepare for possible heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surge, and follow the instructions of local authorities.

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