Will the Philippines Face More Storms This Year? PAGASA Shares Forecast

UPDATE May 13, 2026 11:18 AM:

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From August 2025 to January 2026, up to 17 tropical cyclones are forecasted to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), according to the latest outlook by DOST-PAGASA.

This estimate was based on historical patterns from 1948 to 2015 and was presented during PAGASA’s 186th Climate Outlook Forum on July 29, 2025.
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Monthly Breakdown of Expected Tropical Cyclones

These numbers reflect the climatological average of tropical cyclones entering or forming within PAR for each respective month.

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The map provided in the PAGASA infographic also shows the usual tracks of tropical cyclones during each period. Most of these systems tend to make landfall in Luzon and the Visayas, especially in areas such as Bicol, Quezon, Samar, and Northern Luzon.

August 2025 Rainfall Outlook: Higher than Normal in Some Areas

According to PAGASA’s Probabilistic Rainfall Forecast for August, several stations have a higher likelihood of experiencing above-normal rainfall this month, including:

• Baguio City – 49% chance of above-normal rainfall
• Basco (Batanes) – 50%
• Itbayat – 52%
• Laoag – 49%
• Malaybalay – 49%

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These elevated probabilities suggest that the impacts of tropical cyclones may be intensified by increased rainfall, especially in flood- and landslide-prone areas.
SOURCE: PAGASA

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