PAGASA Raises El Niño Alert Amid Increasing Probability of Below-Normal Rainfall

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued an El Niño Alert due to the developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. According to recent conditions and model forecasts, there is an 80% probability that El Niño will emerge in the coming season (June-July-August) and may persist until the first quarter of 2024.

Understanding El Niño

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). An El Niño Alert is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next two months at a probability of 70% or more.

Potential Impacts on Rainfall

This climatic phenomenon increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions in the country, which could lead to negative impacts such as dry spells and droughts in some areas. However, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected in the western part of the Philippines.

Precautionary Measures and Monitoring

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon and urges all concerned government agencies and the general public to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.

Citizens are encouraged to conserve water, prepare for possible water shortages, and implement measures to mitigate the effects of droughts in their communities. The government is also urged to coordinate with various sectors to ensure timely response and assistance to affected areas.

Stay tuned for further updates and advisories from PAGASA on this developing weather situation.