The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reports that Severe Tropical Storm “Chedeng” (international name: Guchol) has slightly intensified, moving west northwestward over the Philippine Sea.
Current Position and Intensity
As of 10:00 AM today, the center of Chedeng was located 1,070 km East of Central Luzon. It carries maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness reaching up to 125 km/h, and has a central pressure of 985 hPa. The storm continues to move west northwestward at 15 km/h. Despite its increased intensity, no tropical cyclone wind signals have been hoisted at this time.
Potential Land and Coastal Impact
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
PAGASA forecasts that Chedeng is unlikely to bring heavy rainfall over any part of the country within the next 3 to 5 days. However, the storm’s current trajectory may enhance the Southwest Monsoon. The public is urged to monitor updates as the timing and intensity of monsoon rains may change depending on Chedeng’s movement, intensity, and its interaction with other weather systems.
The issuance of Wind Signals in anticipation of severe cyclone winds remains unlikely at this point. However, the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon over the next 3 days may bring gusty conditions over various areas, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous localities exposed to winds. These include parts of the Visayas, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro, northern Palawan, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Camiguin today and tomorrow, extending to CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Camiguin, and Dinagat Islands on Saturday.
Coastal Water Conditions
For the next 24 hours, Chedeng is not expected to cause rough sea conditions over the country’s coastal waters.
Future Trajectory and Intensity
Chedeng is forecast to move generally west northwestward to northwestward today through tomorrow before turning more northward tomorrow evening. The tropical storm is expected to become slow-moving until Saturday before accelerating on Sunday generally north northeastward or northeastward. Chedeng is anticipated to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Monday morning.
Benefitting from favorable environmental conditions, Chedeng is expected to further intensify in the next 2 to 3 days, potentially escalating to a typhoon by tonight or tomorrow. Peak intensity may be reached by Saturday.