Tropical Depression Outside PAR Maintains Strength While Looping South of Guam

A tropical depression located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) maintains its strength while looping over the Pacific waters south of Guam. Although still distant, it is being closely monitored as it may enter the PAR later this week and could potentially affect the Philippines.

Track and Intensity Outlook

• Location of Center (10:00 AM): 1,835 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (8.1°N, 143.3°E) — Outside PAR
• Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
• Present Movement: Eastward at 10 km/h
• Extent of Winds: Strong winds extend outwards up to 450 km from the center

General Outlook for the Forecast Period

• The tropical depression is expected to move erratically within the next 12 to 24 hours before turning northwestward tomorrow (06 November). It will then begin moving west northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period.
• On the forecast track, the system is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday (07 November) late evening or Saturday (08 November) morning. Once inside PAR, it will be assigned the local name “Uwan.”
• Although forecast uncertainty remains high for day 4 and day 5, there is an increasing likelihood of landfall over Northern or Central Luzon on Monday (10 November).
• Rapid intensification is expected beginning Friday, possibly reaching typhoon category by Friday and super typhoon category by Saturday. Landfall may occur at or near its peak intensity.

Potential Impacts on Land

• Wind Signals: May be raised over the eastern portion of Luzon and portions of Samar Provinces as early as Friday evening or Saturday morning. The highest possible signal under the current forecast scenario is Signal No. 5.
• Weather Conditions: Deterioration of weather conditions may begin on Sunday (09 November). Potentially life-threatening stormy conditions could be experienced over Northern and portions of Central Luzon on Monday (10 November) and Tuesday (11 November).
• Coastal Flooding: There is potential for high storm surge risk and coastal flooding, particularly along the east coasts of Northern and Central Luzon. Storm surge warnings may be issued as early as Saturday (08 November).

Marine Hazards

• Moderate to rough seas may begin affecting the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao by late Friday or Saturday.
• The western and southern seaboards of Luzon may also experience rough sea conditions by mid-Saturday or Sunday.
• Very rough to phenomenal seas may affect most of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas starting Sunday onward. Gale Warnings for hazardous sea conditions will likely be issued on Saturday (08 November).

Advisory

Residents and local disaster risk reduction and management offices are advised to monitor updates on this developing weather system. Early preparedness is highly encouraged, especially in areas that could be placed under higher wind signals or storm surge warnings in the coming days.