El Niño Is Here: PAGASA Confirms Very Strong El Niño, Warns of Drought and Warmer Temperatures

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has confirmed that a Very Strong El Niño is currently present in the tropical Pacific, raising concerns over reduced rainfall, drought, and warmer temperatures across the Philippines.

In a press release issued on November 4, 2026, the state weather bureau announced that the ongoing El Niño is expected to persist until the first half of 2027 and could reach its peak before the end of 2026.

What Does This Mean for the Philippines?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. These changes can affect weather patterns around the world, including rainfall and temperature conditions in the Philippines.

For the country, El Niño generally increases the likelihood of receiving less rainfall than usual. Prolonged periods of reduced rainfall can eventually lead to dry spells and drought, affecting water supplies, agriculture, and other activities that depend on sufficient rainfall.

However, PAGASA emphasized that El Niño does not mean rain will completely disappear.

Heavy rainfall can still occur, particularly during the passage of tropical cyclones and other weather systems that bring rain.

Several Provinces Already Experienced Drought Conditions

According to PAGASA’s latest drought assessment, several provinces experienced different levels of rainfall deficiency in October 2026.

• 5 provinces experienced meteorological drought.
• 11 provinces experienced dry spells.
• 10 provinces experienced dry conditions.

These figures indicate that the effects of reduced rainfall were already being observed in several parts of the country before the November announcement.

Less Rain and Warmer Temperatures Expected in November

For November 2026, PAGASA forecasts below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall across most parts of the Philippines.

Several provinces may experience meteorological drought or dry spell conditions by the end of the month.

The weather bureau also expects warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of the country.

These conditions could increase pressure on water resources, especially in communities that rely on rainfall for agricultural activities, household water supplies, and other essential needs.

What About Baguio and the Cordillera?

For Baguio City and other parts of the Cordillera, El Niño may mean periods of reduced rainfall and warmer-than-usual conditions.

However, the extent of these effects will depend on local weather patterns and the rainfall received in the coming months.

The Cordillera’s agricultural communities may also need to pay closer attention to water availability, particularly in areas that depend on rainfall for irrigation.

It is important to note that PAGASA’s November 4 press release does not identify specific Cordillera provinces expected to experience drought. More localized rainfall assessments and forecasts will be needed to determine which areas may be affected.

Does El Niño Mean There Will Be No More Cold Weather in Baguio?

Not necessarily.

PAGASA officially announced the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, locally known as Amihan, on October 27, 2026.

Amihan and El Niño are two different climate phenomena that can occur at the same time.

While Amihan brings cooler air associated with the northeast monsoon season, El Niño can influence broader rainfall and temperature patterns.

This means Baguio may still experience its familiar cool mornings and evenings during the Amihan season, even as the country experiences El Niño conditions.

El Niño does not automatically mean the disappearance of Baguio’s cold season.

PAGASA Urges the Public to Conserve Water

With the possibility of prolonged rainfall shortages, PAGASA is encouraging the public, local government units, and concerned agencies to take preventive measures.

Water conservation and efficient management of available water resources are particularly important.

Households can help by avoiding unnecessary water consumption, repairing leaking faucets and pipes, and using water responsibly.

Farmers and communities dependent on regular rainfall are also encouraged to monitor PAGASA’s climate advisories and prepare for possible changes in water availability.

El Niño Could Continue Into 2027

Although the ongoing El Niño could reach its peak toward the end of 2026, PAGASA expects the phenomenon to persist into the first half of 2027.

This means the potential effects on rainfall, temperatures, and water availability may continue beyond the coming months.

The public is encouraged to follow official PAGASA weather forecasts and climate advisories for updates on the developing situation.

While El Niño may bring drier and warmer conditions to much of the country, heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones remain possible. Preparing for water shortages should therefore go hand in hand with continued awareness of other weather-related hazards.