Falcon continues to maintain its strength; may exit PAR today

Typhoon FALCON continues to maintain its strength while moving west-northwestward towards the sea southeast of Okinawa Islands. As of 10:00 AM, the center of the typhoon’s eye was estimated approximately 875 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (24.8°N, 129.2°E). It now has maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 215 km/h. The central pressure is recorded at 935 hPa. FALCON is currently moving at a speed of 20 km/h.

No Wind Signal has been raised at this time, but the hoisting of Wind Signal No. 1 over Batanes is possible due to the expansive wind field of the typhoon.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

1. The Southwest Monsoon, enhanced by Typhoon FALCON, will bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portion of Luzon in the next three days. Forecasted rainfall is expected to be higher in elevated or mountainous areas, and under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides remain highly likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to such hazards, as indicated in hazard maps and in localities that have experienced considerable amounts of rainfall in recent days.

Severe Winds

Due to the very expansive wind field of the typhoon, the hoisting of Wind Signal No. 1 over Batanes is possible. Furthermore, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring gusty conditions over specific areas, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous regions exposed to winds, on the following days:

• Today: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, the central and southern portions of Aurora, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, and most of Ilocos Region, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas.
• Tomorrow: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, the western portion of Northern Samar, and most of Cordillera Administrative Region and Western Visayas.
• Thursday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Western Visayas.

Track and Intensity Outlook

• FALCON is forecasted to track west-northwestward and begin decelerating as it approaches the waters southeast of Okinawa Islands. On the track forecast, the typhoon may exit the PAR region this afternoon or evening. Afterward, the typhoon will pass south of Okinawa Islands between tonight and tomorrow morning. A period of slow movement may occur by Thursday over the East China Sea.
• FALCON is potentially at its peak intensity at this time and likely to maintain its strength for the next 48 hours, although intensification into a super typhoon is not ruled out. A period of weakening may begin late tomorrow or on early Thursday as it enters the cooler waters of the East China Sea and as upwelling of deep ocean waters resulting from its slowdown limits further development.

Note: The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.